Insights Monthly Jun 2020
The world economy has entered its sharpest and deepest recession since the Great Depression almost 100 years ago, yet equities are in the midst of a raging bull market. By the end of May, global equities, as measured by the MSCI World index, had returned 35% from the market bottom on 23rd March, an exact mirror of the 35% decline between the bull market peak on 19th February and the March 23rd low.
Insights Monthly May 2020
The recovery in markets which started in late March, following the massive interventions of the Federal Reserve in the US, and other major central banks, continued through April. This huge monetary stimulus, a combination of interest rate cuts (the only central banks not to cut have been those with rates already at or below zero) together with asset purchases on a scale never before seen, unlimited in the case of the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan, averted a deep and sudden shock to economic activity from triggering a systemic financial and liquidity crisis. Liquidity, funding and credit stresses eased rapidly and have largely normalised in the past month.
Insights Monthly April 2020
Three months ago, investors were looking forward to an improved year of global growth and corporate earnings. That was then. The coronavirus crisis is an era defining event; life before coronavirus and life afterwards. Above all it is a humanitarian crisis on an epic scale, the speed of its destruction amply illustrated by its spread: on February 29th there were 85,000 confirmed cases across 58 countries, with 2,924 deaths, by 6th April there were 1.25m cases and over 69,000 deaths as the pandemic reached 207 countries.
Insights Monthly March 2020
After a period of remission verging on complacency, markets were dramatically infected by coronavirus in the final week of February, with the sharpest weekly fall in equities since the financial crisis. The trigger was the realisation that the spread of the virus beyond China, and in particular into Europe, was not only inevitable but immediate, with Italy’s economic heartland suffering an extremely serious outbreak which is still in its early stages.
Extraordinary Market Update March 2020
The selloff in markets is a rational reaction to the growing downside risk to economies and corporate profits. The coronavirus and, more recently, the crash in oil prices, have accelerated the pace of decline, suggesting a degree of panic has set in with indiscriminate selling.
Insights Monthly February 2020
Markets started 2020 in much the same way that they ended 2019, with investors buoyed by the expectation of ultra loose monetary policy for a long time ahead, diminished risks from trade wars and Brexit, and the prospect of a recovery from 2019’s growth slowdown as manufacturing showed signs of recovering from the slump of the past 18 months.